Locust Walk conducted a multi‑year analysis of JPM week deal activity to evaluate whether early‑January partnering and M&A activity can reliably benchmark and anticipate full‑year dealmaking momentum across global biopharma.

1. Global licensing deal volume (number of deals) at JPM is the only consistent and actionable early indicator of annual dealmaking momentum, offering BD teams a credible read‑through to the strength of the year.
2. Company M&A activity during JPM is mostly not predictive of annual trends and often misrepresents true market behavior; headlines shape sentiment but should not be used as indicators of annual deal volume.
3. Deal value metrics at JPM offer useful context but lack forecasting reliability, with year-to-year shifts in deal composition (development stage, therapeutic area, and modality) explaining much of the unpredictability.
4. 2026 JPM saw notably low deal volume across both M&A and licensing, signaling a softer start to the year for the metrics that matter most; deal values show a mix of low M&A value and elevated licensing value.

Overall, our analysis shows that JPM week is a meaningful barometer for licensing momentum, but not a universal predictor of biopharma dealmaking.

We invite you to read the full analysis and welcome the opportunity to discuss the findings with your team.